Undoubtedly, the first quarter of 2009 was disappointing for the Stock Markets in India and world over. However, the Stock Markets now look set for better times.
The markets were engulfed with fear and uncertainty when the ripple effects of the unprecedented developments that plagued the global economy began to be increasingly felt on the domestic economy. No country was de-coupled. Amidst all these gloom and bad news that kept flowing in day in and day out, a drastic slide of the key indices of Indian Equity Markets was only expected.
So, how do we look at the Stock Markets going forward? Of course there are some positive signs on the horizon with the economy showing clear signs of pulling out of the mess. Even the global gloom is clearing out faster than expected. This is already being reflected in the current levels of the key Indian Indices.
Post election, the month-on-month rise of 25% plus registered by both the Indices was phenomenal. This acted as a tipping point for the Stock Markets to gain ground and continue the growth path.
Well, we did advised you to buy front line large-cap stocks in our earlier post “Is it the right time to enter stock market?” dated March 11, 2009, with a caveat that market may give short term pains but long term gains. Further, post election too we had maintained our positive outlook for the markets in our article Stocks Markets – Current trends and the way forward.
With markets trading close to their 52-weeks highs, we have presented an analysis of Stock Market performance in 2009. The data for this article is taken from 01-Jan-2009 to 18-Sep-2009 (last trading day before this post). We would welcome your feedbacks and suggestions, so don’t hesitate to leave your comment on this post.
Analysis of Indian Equity Market Scenario
Historical Performance of BSE Sensex
(from 01-Jan-2009 to 18-Sep-2009)
| Quarter |
Month |
Open |
High |
Low |
Close |
Monthly % Change |
|
Q1 |
Jan-09 |
9,973.06 |
10,469.72 |
8,631.60 |
9,424.24 |
-5.50% |
|
Feb-09 |
9,363.58 |
9,724.87 |
8,619.22 |
8,891.61 |
-5.04% |
|
|
Mar-09 |
8,762.88 |
10,127.09 |
8,047.17 |
9,708.50 |
10.79% |
|
|
Q2 |
Apr-09 |
9,745.77 |
11,492.10 |
9,546.29 |
11,403.25 |
17.01% |
|
May-09 |
11,635.24 |
14,930.54 |
11,621.30 |
14,625.25 |
25.70% |
|
|
Jun-09 |
14,790.89 |
15,600.30 |
14,016.95 |
14,493.84 |
-2.01% |
|
|
Q3 |
Jul-09 |
14,493.84 |
15,732.81 |
13,219.99 |
15,670.31 |
8.12% |
|
Aug-09 |
15,694.78 |
16,002.46 |
14,684.45 |
15,666.64 |
-0.18% |
|
|
Sep-09 |
15,691.27 |
16,820.02 |
15,356.72 |
16,741.30 |
6.69% |
Historical Performance of NSE Nifty
(from 01-Jan-2009 to 18-Sep-2009)
| Quarter |
Month |
Open |
High |
Low |
Close |
Monthly % Change |
|
Q1 |
Jan-09 |
2,963.30 |
3,147.20 |
2,661.65 |
2,874.80 |
-2.99% |
|
Feb-09 |
2,872.35 |
2,969.75 |
2,677.55 |
2,763.65 |
-3.78% |
|
|
Mar-09 |
2,764.60 |
3,123.35 |
2,539.45 |
3,020.95 |
9.27% |
|
|
Q2 |
Apr-09 |
3,023.85 |
3,517.25 |
2,965.70 |
3,473.95 |
14.88% |
|
May-09 |
3,478.70 |
4,509.40 |
3,478.70 |
4,448.95 |
27.89% |
|
|
Jun-09 |
4,450.40 |
4,693.20 |
4,143.25 |
4,291.10 |
-3.58% |
|
|
Q3 |
Jul-09 |
4,292.30 |
4,669.75 |
3,918.75 |
4,636.45 |
8.02% |
|
Aug-09 |
4,633.80 |
4,743.75 |
4,359.40 |
4,662.10 |
0.61% |
|
|
Sep-09 |
4,662.20 |
5,003.05 |
4,576.60 |
4,976.05 |
6.73% |
Analysis of Stock Market Performance in 2009
Indian stocks kept tracking the global cues and the key indices gained over 6.7% in first fortnight of Sep-2009 to close at their best levels in the current year. Sensex closed the at 16,741.30, the best for the current year and it was the best close since May 30, 2008. NSE Nifty too crossed 5000 level and closed at 4976.05.
This definitely indicates that the market has recovered to the pre-Lehman collapse range. The Sensex and Nifty have gained almost 100% in last six months and it is said that it was the fastest ever 100% gain for key Indian indices. The maximum level attained by BSE Sensex since Jan-2009 till close of trade on 18-sep-2009 was 16,820.02 as compared to the lowest level of 8,047.17 recorded earlier, this means a gain of 109.02% during this period. Similarly, for NSE Nifty too gained significantly, from the lows of 2539.45 to the highs of 5003.05, a swing of 97.01%. Interestingly, the small cap segment posted the maximum gain during the six months raising 148%.
Earlier this month the G-20 meet announcement, that all major countries will ensure enough liquidity in the system, sent a strong positive signal. FII net bought over Rs. 7,401.90 crore during the month of Sep-2009 till last trading day. Sector-wise, Metal, Bank and Oil & Gas were the sectors that posted the maximum gain of 7.7%, 6.8% and 4.6% respectively last week. FMCG, Realty and Auto sectors posted negative return. In last six months, Realty and Metals posted the best growth with over 200% gain. Banks, Cons Durables, IT, Auto and Cap Goods posted over 100% growth in last six months.
Conclusion
It seems that the worst is over for the Indian Stock Markets. It’s time the Markets got ready for the better months ahead. But it will pay to remain cautious and keep a close track of events both globally as well as domestically!
Disclaimer : PersonalMoney.in and/or its authors take no responsibilities whatsoever for any loss that you may incur based on acting on the opinion expressed in our articles. We are not certified investment advisers. You and solely you are responsible for your investment decisions. We suggest that you seek expert guidance from Certified Investment Advisers before taking any investment decision. Investment in Stock Markets are subject to various risks.